The National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) released a finance results update to their State of the Line Report presented in May. In May, the report reflected the most up-to-date data available and now they have provided updated results for 2019 and preliminary financial estimates for Calendar Year 2019 in workers’ comp.

For Calendar Year 2018, NCCI estimated workers’ comp premium volume net of reinsurance to be $43.2 billion for private carriers, and the updated data indicates a result of $43.3 billion, almost a 9 percent increase in net written premium (NWP) over 2017.

NCCI has since evaluated data reported as of mid-year 2019 to provide a full-year private carrier written premium volume estimate for Calendar Year 2019, which indicates a decrease of NWP of 3.9 percent to $41.6 billion.

NCCI expects premiums in 2019 to decrease by 10 percent, on average, as a result of rate and loss cost filings made in jurisdictions where NCCI makes rates. The cumulative decrease since 2003 is almost 40 percent. This is mainly the result of improved experience driven by declines in lost-time claim frequency.

For 2018 NCCI had estimated a net combined ratio of around 83 percent for private carriers. The updated data indicates a private carrier 2018 combined ratio of 83.2 percent. NCCI estimates the 2019 combined ratio will increase to about 87 percent.

The original investment gain on insurance transactions (IGIT) was estimated to be about 9 percent of net earned premium, the updated report indicates a ratio of 9.2 percent. This gain is still below the 12.8 percent long-term average since 1998. In 2018 the workers’ comp operating gain was 26 percent, which exceeds the 7.2 percent long-term average pretax operating gain since 1998.

Read the full update from NCCI here.